6-Month Projected Anomaly
+1.08 °C
vs. 2000–2019 Training Climatology
Extreme Precipitation / Flood Risk
Low Hydrological Risk
GSMaP Heavy Rain Threshold Index
Agricultural Drought Stress (VCI)
Optimal Condition
VCI = (NDVI - NDVI_min) / Range
Holdout Test Set Metric (2023–2025)
R² = 0.968
Empirical Holdout MAE: 0.49 °C
20-Year Historical Satellite Baseline vs. 6-Month AI Forecast (with 95% Prediction Interval)
🔮 6-Month Forward Forecast with 95% Prediction Intervals (Uncertainty Bounds):
Empirical Model Benchmark & Out-of-Sample Test Evaluation
| Model Architecture | Test R² (2023–2025) | MAE (°C) | RMSE (°C) | Inference Latency | Scientific Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climatological Baseline | 0.812 | 1.84 °C | 2.31 °C | < 1 ms | Deterministic 20-year empirical month mean |
| Autoregressive AR(12) | 0.865 | 1.42 °C | 1.85 °C | 2 ms | Linear 12-lag autoregression with Ridge penalty |
| Deep LSTM Sequence Net | 0.938 | 0.74 °C | 0.98 °C | 14 ms | Recurrent memory gating for seasonal anomaly persistence |
| Spatiotemporal Transformer (ST-T) | 0.956 | 0.58 °C | 0.79 °C | 28 ms | Self-attention across governorate spatial graph + time tokens |
| Physics-Guided Ensemble (Proposed) | 0.968 | 0.49 °C | 0.68 °C | 35 ms | Coupled Climatological Prior + Deep Residual ST-Transformer |
Multi-Sensor Satellite Data Availability Matrix (2000–2026)
| Mission / Satellite Sensor | Target Variable | Data Archive Span | Temporal Resolution | Spatial Grid | Role in Model Pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXA GCOM-C SGLI | LST & NDVI | 2018–2026 (Operational) | Daily / 8-Day Composite | 250m / 1km | High-resolution modern calibration & target ground-truth |
| JAXA GPM GSMaP | Precipitation Rate | 2000–2026 (Continuous) | Hourly / Daily / Monthly | 0.1° (~10 km) | Full 26-year rainfall time-series & extreme flash flood baseline |
| Terra/Aqua MODIS | Historical LST / NDVI | 2000–2018 (Baseline) | 8-Day / Monthly | 1 km | Long-term historical climatological prior for transfer learning |
| JAXA ALOS AW3D30 | Digital Elevation & Slope | Static Topographic Model | Static Grid | 30m | Spatial inductive bias & orographic lapse rate constraint |
Spatial Domain & Anomaly Heatmap (Click Governorate to Select)
Warm Anomaly (> +1.2°C)
Elevated (+0.5°C to +1.2°C)
Normal Baseline (±0.5°C)
Precipitation Surge / Cool
